People’s Concerns With the Prediction of COVID-19 in Bangladesh: Application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

Author:- Md. Ismail Hossain, Ahmed Abdus Saleh Saleheen, Iqramul Haq, Maliha Afroj Zinnia, Md. Rifat Hasan, Samia Kabir, Md. Injamul Haq Methun, Md. Iqbal Hossain Nayan, Ashis Talukder
Category:- Journal; Year:- 2021
Discipline:- Statistics Discipline
School:- Science, Engineering & Technology School


The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a public health concern, and behavioral adjustments will minimize its spread worldwide by 80%. The main purpose of this research was to examine the factors associated with concerns about COVID-19 and the future direction of the COVID-19 scenario of Bangladesh. The binary logistic regression model was performed to assess the impact of COVID-19 concern in Bangladesh. Based on data obtained through online surveys in November 2020 and to predict the next 40 days daily confirmed and deaths of COVID-19 in Bangladesh by applying the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The study enrolled 400 respondents, with 253 (63.2%) were male, and 147 (36.8%) were female. The mean age of respondents was 25.13 ± 5.74 years old. Almost 70% of them were found to be concerned about the COVID-19 pandemic. The result showed that respondents’ education level, knowledge regarding COVID-19 transmits, households with aged people, seasonal flu and HD/respiratory problems, and materials used while sneezing/coughing significantly influenced COVID-19 concerns. The analysis predicted that confirmed cases would gradually decrease for the ARIMA model while death cases will be constant for the next 40 days in Bangladesh. The current study suggested that knowledge about COVID-19 spread and education played a vital role in the decline of COVID-19 concerned. A particular program should focus on creating an awareness of the disadvantages of concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic by augmenting knowledge about COVID-19 spread, enhancing Education in Bangladesh.

Read More