SPATIAL PATTERN OF LAND USE CONFLICT WITH ECOLOGICAL RISK PERSPECTIVE IN KHULNA CITY

The rapid urbanization of Khulna City has created significant changes in land use, that
resulting in increase of land use conflicts and ecological degradation. As the urban growth happens, the demand for land has increased competition for space. This competition often leads to land use fragmentation, where different land uses, such as residential, industrial, and ecological zones, conflict with each other. These changes have not only affected the city's spatial organization but also led to a decline in ecological quality. This study explores the relationship between land use changes and land use conflicts in Khulna from 2001 to 2022, with a specific focus on how these conflicts impact the ecological conditions of the Khulna city. By using the Land Use Conflict Index (LUCI), the Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI), and the identification of Land Use Conflict Zones (LUCZ), the study quantifies the intensity and distribution of land use conflicts alongside the changes in ecological quality.

LUCI calculated using the Complexity Index (CI), Fragility Index (FI), and Stability Index
(SI), shows a significant increase in land use conflicts from 2001 to 2022. In 2001, mild
conflicts covered 14.55 sq. km, moderate conflicts 18.02 sq. km, and severe conflicts 13.54 sq. km. By 2011, moderate conflicts grew to 21.55 sq. km, while severe conflicts decreased slightly to 9.15 sq. km. However, by 2022, severe conflicts expanded to 16.46 sq. km, indicating intensified land use conflicts. The RSEI shows a decline in Khulna’s ecological quality, with the area of highest ecological quality (RSEI 0.80-1.00) decreasing from 16.17 sq. km in 2001 to just 2.10 sq. km in 2022, while areas with lower ecological quality RSEI 0.00-0.20) expanded from 4.65 sq. km to 15.18 sq. km over the same period. The study also identified LUCZ where increased conflicts with degrading ecological quality. From 2001-2011, conflict zones covered 6.16 sq. km (13.67%), with most land in the no-conflict category. By 2011-2022, conflict zones more than doubled to 12.72 sq. km (28.26%), reflecting increased land competition and degraded ecological quality due to land use change. The random forest model showed that key factors influencing land use conflicts in 2022 include NDVI, distance to major residential areas, distance from water, distance from the CBD, and population density, with NDVI being the most influential factor (importance value 0.224035).

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